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NFL Week 8 best bets: Can the Bills cover a double-digit spread against Aaron Rodgers?

Here is a sign of how the NFL seems to be changing in 2022: this column comes out after Tom Bradyfor the third loss in a row and look to the future Aaron Rodgers as a double-digit underdog. The jaguars are favorites on a team led by Russell Wilson. matt ryan was benched. Daniel Jones and Geno Smith are presented in a leading game. The Jets have one of the best records in the NFL, while the Steelers have one of the worst.

The year was difficult to predict. The good news is that if you go for the against the spread picks in this column, you win almost two-thirds of your bets. The bad news? If you’re trying to beat the odds with the Moneyline picks here, you haven’t won yet. And if you mount the player’s props, you’re narrowly in the green.

Let’s see what records continue in Week 8. We’ll pick three solo matches (the London match and the two primetime matches) as well as a first match on the afternoon slate. Next, we’ll try to break the moneyline winless streak and give you a player prop.

Last week’s record: 4-2 overall; 3-1 ATS; 0-1 in pick upset on the moneyline; 1-0 on player accessories.

Summary of the season: 22-19-1 overall; 18-9-1 against the spread; 0-7 in the upset pick on the moneyline; 4-3 on player accessories.

Game in London: Jaguars -2.5 against Broncos

Wilson’s cross-country stretches could prove to be the solution the Broncos need, but that offense has only exceeded 16 points once this season. The Jaguars have amassed 16 points in six of their seven games. Both of their wins are in double digits. For all the Jaguars’ defeats in the last decade, they are 4-4 in London. The Broncos are yet to win on the road under Nathaniel Hackett. It’s hard to pick a two-win team that gives points, although the Broncos made it easy against them. The Jaguars have been within one possession of every loss this season; they are good enough to beat a struggling opponent.

You can’t be lucky enough to win six out of seven games. Even though I’m still not convinced by the Giants, the way they play cannot be ignored. They are also 6-1 against the spread, with six wins as underdogs. Now they are neglected again? The Seahawks are 4-3, 2-1 at home, ranked 7th overall in DVOA and 3rd in offensive DVOA. So I understand why they are favorites. But I like that the Giants get points. Pay attention to the Seahawks’ rushing game, with Kenneth Walker leading the NFL in explosive runs (16.4% of his rushes were over 12 yards) and the Giants ranking 31st in explosive rush rate allowed (12.5%). In a game that looks pretty even, take the points – and the Giants betting tendencies.

Upset choice on the moneyline: Commanders +120 to Foals

It’s been tough (for me) to find a win over the Moneyline picks this season. Let’s try to choose against Sam Ehlinger on his first departure. It’s hard to explain how Ehlinger’s legs will factor into the Colts’ offense, but Washington ranks No. 6 in the NFL in pressure rating and now faces a leaky Colts offensive line. I find it hard to believe that Matt Ryan was the problem in Indianapolis. For Washington, Taylor Heinicke is 8-8 in 16 starts with the franchise. He was an underdog in four of those games. Maybe the Colts are running all over commanders, but if I’m trying to find an underdog who will win outright, I’ll pick against a quarterback making his first career start.

Prime time Sunday game: Invoices -10.5 against Packers

My initial look had me taking Aaron Rodgers getting 10.5 points. Looking closer, the trends support the Bills. In a year that favors underdogs, the double-digit dogs are just 4-4 against the spread. The Bills are 6-1-2 ATS in nine games as double-digit favorites since 2021. Sean McDermott is undefeated at the end of his head coaching career. A stat you’ve probably heard often this week: this is the first time in Rodgers’ career that he’s been a double-digit underdog, so there’s no history to analyze how he would fare in these circumstances. It hasn’t been smart to up the Packers this season, who are 2-5 ATS. Rodgers has publicly criticized his teammates this week, and the defense ranks 25th in the DVOA. There are so many reasons to choose the Bills, who have a strong case for being the best team in football. But I admit it: the scariest thing I’m doing this Halloween is fighting Rodgers.

Prime time Monday game: Browns +3.5 against bengals

The Browns have won seven of their last eight games in this series, including every game since Kevin Stefanski took over as head coach (and Joe Terrier as a Cincinnati quarterback). As hot as the Bengals offense has been, it’s now playing without Ja’Marr Chase, who has four touchdowns in the past two games. Despite the Browns’ 2-5 record, they have lost four games by three runs or less. Even if they lose, they should be able to keep it close. Chase’s injury could be a game-changer, so watch the number when you’re ready to bet.

Player accessory: Panthers WR DJ Moore’s longest reception under 20.5 meters

Moore has just four 20-plus-yard receptions this season and his aerial yards per target with the Panthers quarterback PJ Walker was 8.7 yards – compared to 9.8 yards with Baker Mayfield and 10.9 yards last season with Sam Darnold. Walker has completed just three passes over 20 yards this season and is averaging 9.6 yards per completion. Perhaps there is concern because the Falcons allowed the most completed passes over 20 yards in the NFL, though Burrow inflated those numbers last week. I’m skeptical the Panthers will go deep on the Falcons as often and feel safer against Moore and the Panthers passing game.

(Photo of Stefan Diggs: Gregory Fisher / USA Today)