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Bettors hope Josh Allen’s connection to Stefon Diggs pays off this NFL Thanksgiving


Bills vs Saints odds

Invoices Odds -5.5
Saints odds +5.5
Moneyline tickets -250
Moneyline of the Saints +200
More less 45.5
Dated Thursday 25 November
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel SCS

Odds are according to PointsBet as of Thursday.

The Buffalo Bills will be looking to get back on track when they travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints on Thanksgiving Day.

We seem to lack advanced analyzes with regard to bills. Buffalo was ranked No.1 in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA for weeks – and even after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars 9-6.

Until last week, with the seventh best winning percentage in football, the Bills were still ranked No.1. After an embarrassing loss to the Colts, the Bills finally fell to fifth overall.

Their defense is still strong – and still ranked No.1 in defensive DVOA – but Josh Allen has looked like a complete fraud lately. He’s averaged just over two turnovers per game over his past three weeks and has always done horrible readings.

The Bills are now second in the AFC East behind the New England Patriots and are barely hanging on to the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They are only half a game ahead of the Colts who come into play this week.

Meanwhile, the Saints themselves are mired in a playoff battle. Like the Bills, they are currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC, but an injury to starting quarterback Jameis Winston has left them inconsistent offensively.

Since the injury, the Saints have lost three games in a row: a home game to a terrible Atlanta Falcons team, another on the road to a good Tennessee Titans team and away to an Eagles team. of Philadelphia.

Still, it’s the best defense against running in the NFL. If somehow they figure out how to get a consistent quarterback game with Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian, this team could very well end up in the playoffs.

With Buffalo favored by 5.5, the public absolutely annihilates the spread of bills. About 92% of the total money is on invoices to be covered by this margin.

The public is also hammering these three-player props associated with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.

Bills vs Saints Props

  1. Josh Allen to throw for over 280.5 passing yards (-110)
  2. Stefon Diggs scores a touchdown anytime (+125)
  3. Stefon Diggs will record more than 80.5 yards on reception (-115)

Allen passed the 280-yard passing milestone in just four of his 10 games this season.

This implies a rating of around +150.

With the quality of the Saints’ run defense, I would also expect the Bills to go up in the air a lot more often than they normally would. Still, do you trust Josh Allen after the stinks he put up this month?

It is your own judgment to make. For what it’s worth, the Saints are No. 14 in the NFL in pass defense, according to DVOA.

The other two props involve Stefon Diggs. He’s scored a touchdown in four of his last five games.

The touchdown accessories are difficult to analyze empirically overall. They are generally quite random and – in particular for the receivers – therefore dependent on the situation. But for this one, I see a solid value considering how often he’s been scoring lately and how often the Bills are being aired. At +125 you also get more money.

I see less value on the Diggs receiving yard attachment. He has reached 81 yards in just four of his 10 games. Especially with the -115 vig I would try my luck with its touchdown accessory and then call it a day.

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